Vannevar Bush on "Modern Arms and Free Men"

In “Modern Arms and Free Men,” Vannevar Bush offers insights into how the US leveraged its scientific and engineering talent for World War 2.

Vannevar Bush on “Modern Arms and Free Men”

“Modern Arms and Free Men” is a collection of essays by Vannevar Bush published in 1049. Subtitled “A Discussion of Science in the Role of Preserving Democracy,” it contains reflections on how the United States harnessed its scientific and engineering talent during World War 2 to recover from early setbacks and prevail. This was a challenge that Bush was intimately familiar with, having created and managed the Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD), which oversaw much of military research and development efforts in WW2. As the head of OSRD, Bush reported directly to President Roosevelt. Instead of drafting researchers into the organization, Bush relied on project-oriented contracts, which allowed researchers to remain in familiar surroundings and contribute to the war effort. OSRD attacked a wide variety of challenges, funding research that resulted in proximity fuses, enhanced radar for naval, ground, and air applications, and atomic weapons, to name just a few of the more significant accomplishments.

A System Based on the Dignity of Man and Built on Good Will is the Strongest

“Through the pattern of modern thinking runs a doubt, a question as to whether a system based on the dignity of man, built on good will, can be sufficiently strong to prevail. The thesis of this book is that such a system is far stronger, in dealing with the intricate maze of affairs that the applications of science have so greatly elaborated, than any dictatorship. The democratic system, in which the state is truly responsive to the will of the people, in which freedom and individuality are preserved, will prevail, in the long run, for it is not only the best system, the most worthy of allegiance that the mind of man has built; it is the strongest system in a harsh contest.”

Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men“

His belief that a culture that cultivates mutual respect and goodwill while allowing for individuality and disagreement–even harsh criticism–makes for the most effective teams, projects, and societies runs throughout the book. By all accounts, Vannevar Bush had a strong personality, was personally inventive, and created incentive mechanisms that enabled a fair amount of autonomy subject to central review and accountability. When he spearheaded the creation of the Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) in mid-1941 the US was clearly headed for war. A war that the Germans had started two years earlier and had proven adept at incorporating new technologies into a variety of weapons systems. These fielded innovations not only gave a qualitative advantage to individual systems like tanks, submarines, and fighter aircraft but also gave doctrines like maneuver warfare (blitzkrieg) new potency, triggering the collapse of France in six weeks a year earlier.

Cost and Conditions At Time of Deployment Are Critical Considerations

Bush was naturally frugal but his concerns for cost are driven more by a desire for maximizing the impact of what is spent, managing opportunity costs or competing alternatives, and doing the utmost to prevail in what became an all out war.

“There is a common notion that during war costs do not count. There is no greater fallacy. The error comes from the belief that civilian resources are unlimited. They are not. Costs are more important in war than at any other time, for the need for overall effectiveness is then more imperative. Every development and procurement of a useless device detracts just that much from progress along highly necessary lines. […]
No industrial concern would launch a development without prior cost studies or without causing it to run the gantlet of tough-faced engineers with sharp pencils. Military organizations can proceed without this unpleasant preliminary skirmishing, and often do. When this happens performance is bad. It is equally fallacious to undertake a development without estimating its performance in the light of conditions that will apply when it actually gets into use, allowing for development in other lines in the meantime. […]
However, it is often asserted that in time of war or preparations for war cost considerations disappear. As has earlier been said, there is no more troublesome fallacy. Cost considerations do not then disappear; they take a different form. In fact, in an all out war it is all the more essential to conserve resources and effort and apply them where they will produce the greatest effect, so that costs are then of more real moment than they are in peace.”

Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men”

The second half of the passage outlines the challenges of hitting not only a moving target but also one part of a co-evolving ecosystem. This sentence applies to the obligations of today’s program or product manager: “It is equally fallacious to undertake a development without estimating its performance in the light of conditions that will apply when it actually gets into use, allowing for development in other lines in the meantime. ” You cannot assume your competition will stand still as you develop, test, and deploy your new offering. Furthermore, you have to anticipate how they will react to it in ways that may neutralize the competitive advantage you hope to gain.

Unconventional Advance in Full Measure Needs New Blood

“It is said that Great Britain and the United States lagged in the development of jet planes, and that if we had countered jets with jets the situation would have been different, for we could then have protected our bomber fleets. Lag we did. Part of this lag was probably owing to the fact that the development in this country was in the hands of those who knew too much about the subject; one seldom gets unconventional advance in full measure except by the introduction of new blood.”

Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men”

In “Zen Mind, Beginner’s Mind,” Shunryu Suzuki observes, “The mind of the beginner is empty, free of the habits of the expert, ready to accept, to doubt, and open to all the possibilities. […] In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few.” There are many advantages to relying on experienced experts, but novices with newcomer eyes can help you open new frontiers and create “unthinkable products.”

Jet engines were invented simultaneously in England and Germany. Frank Whittle was born in England in 1907, patented a design in 1930, and flew a successful prototype in 1940. So, between the ages of 23 and 33, he substantially advanced the state of the art. Hans von Ohain was born in 1911 in Germany, patented a design in 1935, flew a successful prototype in 1937, and designed the world’s first gas turbine to power an aircraft in 1939. So, between the ages of 24 and 28, he advanced the state of the art in Germany. He moved more quickly than Whittle because he had access to greater resources from Heinkel Aircraft Company and had reviewed Whittle’s patent filing. I have not been able to determine who led US research efforts on jet engines. I did come across this passage that indicates that GE, even with access to Whittle’s blueprints, was not able to make significant progress during the war.

“The military turned the top secret drawings over to General Electric to quickly recreate the engine. Bell Aircraft was given the responsibility to design an aircraft to incorporate two of these new I-A engines. During flight tests in October 1942, however, the I-A’s performance was disappointing. In the ensuing month, General Electric redesigned the engine to be 10 to 15 percent more powerful. Flight tests of this I-16 (J31) engine during the summer of 1943 did not yield the desired improvements.”
From NASA Early Jet Engines

See also “Jet Propulsion” starting on page 186 of “Model Development” a history of aeronautical model development. A committee of the National Academy of Sciences concluded in June 1940 that “the gas turbine could hardly be considered a feasible application to airplanes mainly because of the difficulty in complying with the stringent weight requirements imposed by aeronautics.” England already had working jet engines, and Germany had operational jet aircraft. To be fair, the Wright brothers’ success in 1903 at Kitty Hawk with a working aircraft surprised a lot of experts as well.

Unrestrained Criticism, Interchange, and Give-and-Take are Essential

“[For] several years they had followed a false lead, into all sorts of ramifications, without once finding out that the structure they had erected was utterly unsound. […] This able group was operating in isolation, and its strange adventure was the result of its remoteness from unbiased criticism and of the regimentation of its internal thinking. The extent to which, in the absence of truly critical examination, a competent group can follow a false scent is appalling. Science and it’s practical application proceed by trial and error, with tentative experiment and hypothesis, with the winnowing of chaff by competition and criticism, and the gradual formation of a sound line of advance by the survival of the fittest. When science enters upon an artificially protected but absurd line it can produce monstrosities […]
Yet even more than unrestrained criticism is needed for healthy advance in fields that involve many skills and techniques. Interchange and collaboration on a give-and-take basis are also needed. The larger and more complex the effort, the more this becomes essential to progress.

Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men”

Bush is describing a Russian research team that believed it had developed a novel insulator material with higher performance than existing alternatives. When they made it available for independent testing it performed not better than alternatives. The lesson her for startup entrepreneurs is to avoid groupthink with open discussion and a willingness to engage in vigorous critique of ideas.

Commit to Synthesizing the Judgments of Diverse Specialists

They must accept at the outset the principle that in the process of synthesizing the judgments of diverse specialists into the integrated whole of a comprehensive plan, they will not override the professional judgments of others within the areas where those others have special competence.
Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men”

Sound advice for product and project managers and other leaders.

It Comes Down to People

It is a sound political system that projects into power primarily men who know men.
Vannevar Bush in “Modern Arms and Free Men”

SKMurphy Key take-aways

Effective teams cultivate mutual respect, allow individuality, and encourage direct criticism of ideas and proposals.
Developing technology requires you to aim at a moving target, anticipating competitor progress and ongoing evolution in the technology ecosystem that provides a common substrate for an industry.
Revolutionary inventions create new paradigms and obsolete existing expertise. They are often resisted by established experts who fear a loss of status as their knowledge becomes obsolete.
Novices with newcomer eyes complement experts when you are looking for breakthroughs.
Costs, including opportunity costs of other alternatives, must always be considered when planning an effective course of action.
New technology products are designed and delivered by sociotechnical systems whose human component dominates the technical.

Vannevar Bush on “Modern Arms and Free Men”